Syria’s Fragile Transition: Security Begins with Trust

In recent weeks, Syria has faced unprecedented security challenges and threats, as seen in the Masyaf massacre and the bombing of oil and gas pipelines and weapons depots. While reactions have unequivocally rejected and condemned every criminal act targeting citizens´-or-facilities within the country, examining these events helps us understand the circumstances Syria is enduring. This is particularly relevant following the harrowing ordeals the nation has faced. Ordeals that should serve as a catalyst for everyone, without exception, to strive toward national recovery and place the country on the path to the stability we aspire to achieve: a secure nation where citizens feel safe about their homes, property, and their children’s futures.

One cannot overlook the sectarian-motivated crimes that periodically target civilians, keeping wounds wide open amidst a hemorrhage that undermines efforts to avert total chaos. This persists despite the flaws marring the pursuit of justice for crimes committed over the past two years, ongoing campaigns of extremism, rising hatred, and sectarian discrimination, coupled with the lack of accountability mechanisms capable of protecting society from escalating crime through tangible deterrent legal measures. Such measures are essential to prevent these crimes from morphing into organized violence within Syrian society, violence often perpetrated under the guise of protection, existential defense,´-or-retribution.

Converging Interests

Singling out specific groups whenever a crime occurs deviates from an objective approach to national issues-;- often, the underlying aim is to buy time while projecting an image of official vigilance until the situation clarifies.

Undoubtedly, remnants of the Assad regime, along with those who stood to lose from its fall, both inside and outside Syria, will continue working to prevent stability from taking hold in the country.

It is natural to draw a connection between the heinous crime that targeted civilians on a bus and the security-related explosions that struck gas pipelines in Deir ez-Zor, the Damascus countryside, and near the T-4 (T Four) airbase. Linking these incidents clearly suggests an intent to destabilize Syria, a stability that is, by nature, relative and fragile, despite Syrian authorities prioritizing the security apparatus.

The most pressing question remains: who benefits? A hypothetical answer might lead to the actual perpetrator, who -function-s merely as an instrument for those orchestrating these events strategically. Key indicators point to a convergence of interests among regional and domestic forces seeking to -dir-ectly influence the trajectory of change during the transitional phase.
Foremost among these is the Israeli entity, which pursues a clear, declared strategy of systematically destroying Syrian military capabilities. In my view, this explains the series of explosions targeting Ministry of Defense arms depots, facilities that, prior to December 2024, belonged to the former regime. In reality, Israel has been continuously engaging in the pre-emptive destruction of Syrian defensive capabilities from the Assad era to the present day. This hypothesis is reinforced by the challenges facing the Syrian Israeli negotiations aimed at reaching a security agreement, negotiations that appear to have currently reached an impasse, despite U.S. efforts to mediate.

However, there are parties whose intervention could have consequences extending far beyond well-established Israeli policies, specifically Iran, acting through its proxies in Iraq. These proxies play a prominent role in destabilizing security across the region amidst the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict. Of particular note are the threats issued last July and August by pro-Iranian Iraqi militias against Syrian authorities-;- citing Syria’s alleged support for Hezbollah, they threatened to breach the Syrian border and activate ---sleep---er terrorist cells, actions that foreshadowed the subsequent bombings and criminal acts aimed at undermining Syria’s stability.

These developments pose a genuine dilemma for the authorities in Damascus, presenting security challenges that signal a precarious situation, one that could either persist´-or-deteriorate further. This impacts other strategic dimensions, such as state reconstruction projects, particularly in energy investment, at a time when proposals are being floated to establish Syria as a safe energy corridor and alternative route, given the military operations and struggles for control over waterways from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Other forces also oppose the Damascus government achieving stability´-or-successfully navigating the transitional phase, and thus seek to sow security and social chaos. These forces consist of hardline groups attempting to impose their ideologies and agendas on the social fabric, viewing the government’s policies as a departure from religious orthodoxy. Whether one agrees´-or-disagrees with the policies and performance of the Syrian authorities, these groups view themselves as partners in the liberation process and insist that their voices should be the dominant ones. The Syrian authorities know them well, possess information regarding their capabilities and ideologies, and are fully aware of the risks posed by their extra-legal activities.

As for the SDF, despite the announcement of its dissolution, the revolutionary organizations linked to it remain active. These groups render the process of integration with the Syrian authorities difficult and, thus far futile. Their hostile actions persist, particularly in Al-Hasakah, as they work to destabilize the security situation to prevent the region from achieving any genuine stability.

Protection Measures

The US withdrawal from Iraq created a security vacuum that allowed armed factions to rise amidst the proliferation of uncontrolled weaponry. A similar state of arms-related chaos prevails in Syria, where numerous armed factions and groups, ranging from remnants of Assad’s forces to the SDF and Syrian factions not fully integrated into the Ministry of Defense, not to mention armed individuals, continue to threaten regional stability. While southern Lebanon is currently at a historic turning point, it remains a vulnerable flank for southwestern Syria.

Consequently, the Syrian authorities face urgent and immense responsibilities: securing the borders and preventing cross-border armed groups and forces from operating within Syrian territory. Furthermore, they must undertake significant security efforts that go beyond mere agreements with neighboring countries, relying instead on developing their own national capabilities to safeguard the nation.

What truly protects and internally fortifies Syria, shielding its people from security´-or-social threats, is not-limit-ed to security measures and military plans. It also requires restoring the trust that has begun to erode within Syrian society. The authorities must urgently formulate policies to bridge the widening gaps across all sectors, including living standards, the economy, investment, and justice, while engaging seriously with national forces and initiating a comprehensive national dialogue that addresses all key issues. Ultimately, Syrians must feel a true sense of citizenship and realize that they are the focal point of everything in the new Syria.

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