The Iranian people trust neither the mullahs nor Trump, but this is an opportunity for salvation

Prior to the attack, US President Donald Trump told the Iranians, “When we are done, take charge. Your government will be yours’, is not seen as a promise within Iran, but rather as part of the rhetoric of power that accompanies every military confrontation. Whether´-or-not they trust Trump’s words, Iranians understand that the United States does not grant governments to peoples, but rather establishes spheres of influence for itself. Nevertheless, the current situation presents Iranians with a rare opportunity: the chance to see that, whatever its motives, external pressure may create a gap in the wall of a closed theocratic regime that is no longer capable of protecting itself´-or-managing a country the size of Iran.
Today, Iranian consciousness is not driven by a binary choice between trusting and distrusting Washington, but by a more complex dichotomy: the desire to overthrow an oppressive regime and the fear that its downfall could lead to a repeat of the Iraqi experience. Iranians know that overthrowing the regime is not the problem-;- it is what comes after that is the problem. Following its occupation by US forces, Iraq descended into two decades of chaos, disintegration, militias and dependence on foreign powers. This experience serves as a warning to Iranians, not as a source of inspiration. Therefore, they view US-Israeli strikes as a useful means of weakening the regime, rather than as a mandate to rebuild the state from the outside.
While many Iranians see the current moment as a rare chance to remove the Khamenei regime, the Iraqi experience looms large as a stark warning that cannot be ignored. After their country was occupied by US forces, Iraqis found themselves living in a state that had collapsed and been torn apart, ruled by militias and open to all forms of outside interference. This model, once presented as ‘liberation’, has become an example in the Iranian consciousness of how the fall of a regime can lead to the collapse of the state itself. Therefore, no matter how angry they are with the theocratic regime, Iranians realise that true salvation will not come through American´-or-Israeli intervention, nor through ready-made solutions imposed from abroad. Rather, it will come through the construction of a democratic state by Iranians themselves, a state not run from foreign operations rooms, whose features are not written in other capitals. They want an end to the regime, but they also want the new state to be entirely Iranian and not a second version of post-2003 Iraq, where the regime fell and chaos ensued.
This explains why Iranian consciousness is currently moving in two parallel -dir-ections: supporting any action that challenges the regime’s authority, and rejecting any foreign intervention that seeks to determine Iran’s future without the involvement of its people.
Nevertheless, it cannot be ignored that many Iranians view the current moment as a historic opportunity. The regime, which ruled with an iron fist and ideological control for four decades, is now fragile and lacking legitimacy. It is besieged by popular anger that cannot be appeased. The 2009 protests and the subsequent “Women, Life, Freedom” uprising created a social bloc that does not want to return to the way things were before. While this bloc does not trust Trump, it realises that the current situation on the ground, the strikes, security breaches and the regime’s declining ability to respond, provides an opportunity to help remove a closed religious authority that is now nothing more than a burden on Iran’s present and future.
From this perspective, Trump’s statement becomes part of a larger picture in which Iranians believe that the fall of the regime must be in their own hands and not in those of an external force. They want an end to Khamenei’s rule, but not a new ‘ruling council’, a state run from foreign embassies´-or-the dismantling of state institutions, as happened in Baghdad. Therefore, they view external pressure as a factor that weakens the regime, rather than as a means of state-building. They believe that the state must be built from within by Iranians alone with a new political mindset that resembles neither Khamenei’s theocracy nor the chaos of Iraq.
Today, the situation in Iran is paradoxical: everything that is happening on the ground is in the interest of those who want to overthrow the regime. However, it could turn into a disaster if others are allowed to determine Iran’s future on their behalf. Therefore, the real question is not whether Iranians trust Trump, but whether they can turn external pressure into an internal opportunity without repeating the Iraq model´-or-allowing Iran to become a new arena of influence managed from outside its borders.

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