New Syria… A Sunni Version of the Iranian Model?

The Syrian scene today appears to be heading toward the formation of a new political and ideological model, one that carries in its core features a familiar experience in the region, yet is being reproduced under a different sectarian framework. The rapidly shifting regional balances suggest that there is an unspoken consensus to establish an entity with a hardline Sunni character, performing a clear geopolitical -function-: separating Iranian influence from the heart of the politically volatile Middle East—a region currently undergoing radical transformations that are redrawing the maps of power and alliances.
What reinforces this perception is that the forces behind the creation of the new Syrian reality seem to possess the ability to control the pace of this project and the-limit-s of its expansion. The potential presence of U.S. military bases in Damascus provides a strategic deterrent, while Israel has successfully established a wide buffer zone in the south, consolidated its effective control over the Golan Heights, and created internal points of leverage, especially in Sweida, leaving any transitional government vulnerable if it deviates from the path set before it. Meanwhile, Turkey has secured its position by weakening the military power of the Syrian Democratic Forces while retaining political, economic, and geopolitical influence within Syrian territory. The Gulf states, in turn, appear relatively reassured by the emergence of an authority with an Islamic Sunni reference, which could evolve into a counterbalance against Iranian influence,´-or-at least serve as a barrier to its expansion in the Arab world.
Yet the more pressing question is not only about these regional balances, but about the internal project taking shape within Syria, and whether the transitional government is truly moving toward reproducing an ideological-military state model akin to Iran, but under a Sunni guise.
Since assuming power, this government, despite international support and growing political recognition, has presided over a reality in which, although relations with the international community have been -restore-d, sanctions alleviated, large swaths of territory, infrastructure, and energy fields recovered, and promising international investments promoted, the living conditions for ordinary Syrians have gone in the opposite -dir-ection. Economic restrictions are increasingly heavy, and basic services—once provided at varying degrees of stability—have become daily burdens, while the national currency has lost most of its value. This raises fundamental questions about the fate of national resources and the priorities guiding their allocation.
This trajectory evokes the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, where state resources were gradually -dir-ected toward building an ideological military apparatus—the Revolutionary Guard—at the expense of economic development and citizens’ livelihoods. Current indicators in Syria, from the rise of inflammatory religious rhetoric to the organization of educational programs targeting young people, along with growing sectarian and ethnic tensions, suggest an attempt to reshape society along a mobilizing ideological structure, potentially laying the groundwork for ideological military formations extending beyond the boundaries of the conventional state.
If this project is indeed taking shape, its danger lies not only in its ideological nature but also in the fact that it appears governed by regional balances that ensure its survival within-limit-s that do not threaten its patrons. A hardline state may not pose a real concern as long as it is surrounded by a network of military and political safeguards, and as long as its geopolitical -function- serves the interests of those powers. Yet the true cost of this balance is most often borne by society itself, caught between the legacy of a bloody authoritarian regime and the potential emergence of a new ideological system that may be no less harsh, albeit with different instruments and slogans.
Syria now stands at a critical historical crossroads: attempting to rise from the ruins of the past, yet possibly on a path toward reproducing a new authoritarian model, based on the militarization of ideology and the politicization of religion. Should this trajectory solidify, its impact will not be confined to Syria alone but will reshape the balance of conflict across the region, leaving the Syrian people once again to bear the cost of major struggles—the cost of a past that has not ended, and of a future yet to clearly emerge.

Rate the article
Bad	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Very good
Result : 100%							Participated in the vote : 1