Turkey and the Kurds at a Crossroads

Amid the shifting winds of regional politics, the discussion surrounding the Turkish-Kurdish situation brings us to a critical juncture where interests and crises converge. The negotiations between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), as well as with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), seemed to be moving towards a semi-agreed-upon path—one aimed at resolving outstanding issues with the Kurds while simultaneously achieving Turkey s strategic interests in Syria. Yet, as with any political tug-of-war, new elements inevitably emerge, disrupting the understanding and bringing power balances back to square one.

Things seemed to be progressing positively when agreements were reached concerning the PKK. Under these agreements, the PKK was expected to end its armed presence in exchange for Turkish guarantees not to interfere in Kurdish affairs in Syria, while granting them autonomy in the northeastern part of the country. However, in recent days, following President Erdoğ-;-an’s return from the Turkish-speaking countries summit in Hungary, the winds of tension blew again. He made a sharp statement, demanding Damascus implement the agreement with Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the SDF, amidst threats of Syrian army intervention. Erdoğ-;-an’s remarks sparked debate over the sustainability of these agreements, reflecting, as usual, his disregard for commitments.

What worries Turkey is that the PKK did not lay down its arms but rather moved its fighters from the Qandil Mountains to northern Syria, where they joined the Kurdish Protection Units (YPG). This shift indicates that the PKK has not committed to the solution-;- instead, it has changed its location and tactics, heightening Turkey’s fears of a new escalation that could bring them back to square one after decades of conflict.

In response, the PKK accuses Turkey of obstructing solutions, asserting that Ankara has not honored its promises to release Abdullah Ö-;-calan, the imprisoned leader of the party. This deadlock in negotiations only complicates matters further, deepening the mutual distrust between the parties. Turkish and Syrian reports reflect Erdoğ-;-an’s frustration with the Syrian government’s procrastination in implementing the agreements.

Additionally, the Turkish-Israeli negotiations regarding coordination in Syria have proven less developed than expected. The relationship between Ankara and Tel Aviv is becoming increasingly complex, especially in light of the swift rapprochement between Damascus and Tel Aviv. This dynamic leaves Ankara feeling isolated in the Syrian equation. The normalization between Damascus and Tel Aviv, while not officially announced, raises alarm in Turkey, which views Israel as the primary ally of the SDF. The rapprochement between Israel and Damascus could open the door for expanding Israeli influence in the Euphrates region.

Meanwhile, in Syria, the situation is multifaceted. Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara continues to impose his terms, but there are those who believe that negotiations with the SDF may contain secret clauses that could harm Damascus s interests, particularly regarding Washington s demands. Erdoğ-;-an has sought to exploit this crisis to assert his position, even threatening to establish Turkish military bases in Syria to safeguard his country’s interests, reflecting his deep concern over a deteriorating situation.

The new U.S. envoy to Syria, Thomas Barak, has made recent remarks about Sykes-Picot and the borders of the region, raising profound questions. Barak suggests that it will be the regional countries that will make their own decisions, which may implicitly signal a call for redrawing the map of the region, with geography no longer confined to traditional political stances. His statement raises questions about the possibility of shifting alliances and the division of the region between Sunni and Shia powers, further fueling fears about the future of the area.

As this transformation continues, the questions remain: Can Turkey overcome these obstacles and assert its will in Syria? Will negotiations with the Kurds succeed in creating common ground after this period of tension?´-or-are there other developments on the horizon, with each side strengthening its position, whether through dialogue´-or-confrontation? What is clear is that regional politics is full of surprises, and any misstep could turn the table entirely.

The debate over the future of Turkish-Kurdish relations and the potential scenarios in Syria remains open, awaiting the coming horizon shaped by the shifting alliances on the ground.

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