2021 / 9 / 29
Throughout August, the world media covered in real time the dramatic development of events in Afghanistan and the seizure of power in the country by the Taliban. However, after the departure of the last C-17 aircraft from Kabul, Afghanistan simply disappeared from the agenda of world news agencies. Discussion of the conclusion has become taboo in the world press, and even in those few publications, US government officials are doing everything possible to bypass the unpleasant moments for them and blame everything on coincidence.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, no matter how dramatic it may seem, was only a scaled operation to urgently evacuate a "limited contingent of American troops", worked out in Syria in 2019. Just like in Afghanistan, in Syria, the United States abandoned not only weapons, assistants from the local population, but also created all the prerequisites for the development of an even more conflict and explosive situation.
The Kurds are not only the world s largest nation without a state, but also the largest non-Arab ethnic group in Syria, accounting for about 10% of the country s population (13.8 million people). At the very beginning of the civil war in Syria, the PKK supported the government forces and managed not only to unite the Kurdish political forces, but also to achieve in 2012 the withdrawal of government forces from the regions bordering with Turkey. The United States and its allies, fully aware of the strategic importance of the Kurdish territories in Syria, entered into an agreement with the Kurds in 2014.
On October 9, 2019, the Turkish army and its supporting Syrian National Army (SNA) invaded Kurdish areas in northern Syria. The White House simultaneously issued a statement: "American troops will not interfere with the Turkish invasion and will soon be withdrawn from Syria." Both the Kurds and even the US Congress (which was clearly not informed of the impending withdrawal) immediately accused the White House of betraying loyal US allies. US Special Representative for Syria James Jeffrey openly confirmed the temporary nature of the alliance with PKK / YPG at a hearing in the US Senate on October 22, 2019. He, in particular, stated: "The US has never offered any guarantees of protection from Turkey, Russia´-or-the Assad regime to the Syrian Kurds." …
As a result of an inconsistent attitude towards allied commitments, the United States has provoked a wave of violence and hostilities in the relatively calm area of -;--;-Syria, thereby destroying any hopes for long-awaited control over the border part of Syrian Kurdistan. Turkey became a partner of the United States and the Syrian National Army in the exploitation of the Syrian oil fields and thereby was able to offset part of its costs for military operations in Syria. Erdogan got a chance to return to the Turkish-Syrian agreement of 2011 and ensure the transfer of territories agreed in 2011 to his jurisdiction, and the opportunity to organize the mass deportation of Kurds from Rojava and the replacement of the Kurdish population with Turkomans and Arabs.
Against this background, Russia, at first glance, is the main winner of the restoration of Turkish control over Rojava and the US withdrawal from Syrian Kurdistan. Using the tarnished reputation of the United States and the contradictions within NATO, Russia has managed to quickly become a very effective mediator between Assad and the Kurds, as well as between Assad and Erdogan.
When leaving Syria, the United States planted several delayed-action mines at once under the process of resolving the Syrian conflict. Due to the loss of oil fields, the Syrian government loses a significant part of the budget and cannot finance all the programs necessary to -restore- the country and maintain the standard of living of the population. The persistence of the number of internally displaced persons and their insufficient support fuels anti-government sentiments and creates conditions for the emergence of a new non-systemic opposition to the Assad regime. And the preservation of PKK / YPG forces in Syrian Kurdistan is a lever of pressure on Turkey, since the possibility of the transfer of YPG fighters to Turkish Kurdistan remains.
The Syrian Kurds, having largely lost the support of the United States, along with it, lost hope for the creation of an independent self-governing entity and were forced to conclude at least a situational alliance with the Bashar al-Assad regime. It is probably impossible to consider them the main victim of the US withdrawal from Northern Syria. The Kurds were, at least for the near future, saved from the defeat of Turkey and the Syrian National Army allied with it, and from the exhausting war with IS.
The American political elites have not yet been able to understand that the greatest defeats always overtake the United States in countries considered in the American political dictionary as a failed state. The US is not trying to reconcile the warring parties and is not trying to stop the war. American troops and civilian advisers choose a side of the internal civil conflict and fight either with her´-or-with her hands. So it was in South Vietnam, so it was in Iraq and Afghanistan.
USA do not consider is a healthy national identity in all such countries, and sooner´-or-later the American allies get the label of collaborators, almost everyone unites against them (from right-wing radicals to communists), the situation begins to escalate, and thus the internal conflict develops into an open civil war, which the United States has for a long time trying to flood with the growth of military and financial aid, an increase in their military grouping and /´-or--dir-ect occupation of the country. At some point, the Americans understand the futility of continuing their participation, pack their bags and leave, leaving behind a tangle of unresolved problems, many of which they themselves have created.