Mohamed Ibrahim Bassyouni
2020 / 5 / 11
If you think you don t have a big role to play in how a coronavirus outbreak appears, think again. And you have the power to make this epidemic much worse. This is because coronavirus is more contagious and deadly than common influenza. One person can easily transfer it to other people without knowing it, then these people transfer it to more people, which creates a terrifying effect like snowball.
The solution is that just as you can easily transfer the virus to other people, you can easily avoid transmitting it if you are willing to stay home. By simply sitting on the sofa, you can save lives.
To find out the reason, check out the visualization below. It shows how a person with coronavirus, which transmits the virus to three other people (some experts say this is the average, although others estimate the infection is a little lower), can quickly generate a public health nightmare that affects thousands of people. But it also shows how one person can mitigate this effect through social estrangement. By avoiding others, an individual can deny the virus the chance to infect more people.
One striking realistic example of this phenomenon is the woman known as Patient 31. South Korea had only 30 cases of Covid-19 as of February, had contracted the infection and had started to spread the virus unintentionally. Despite her fever, she had lunch with a friend in a hotel, attended church services, and reached out to several worshipers. Within days, the test of hundreds of people from the church and its surrounding was positive for Covid-19.
You do not want to be patient 31.
This is why even if you are young and healthy and falsely believe that the virus cannot kill you, it is best to stay at home to protect others especially the elderly and people with weakened immunity who are at greater risk of death if they are infected with COFED 19, as well as health care crews who are forced Putting themselves at risk every day.
Believe it´-or-not, with the simple act of staying at home, you can save many people, even several thousand people, from contracting a virus.
To find out the extent of the disease infection, experts use the basic reproductive number, called R0. This indicates the number of other people on average that one person will be infected in a group that does not already have immunity. The higher the R0 level, the more likely it is that many people will develop the disease.
R0 for common influenza is 1.3. So, if you get the flu, it will transfer that on average to 1.3 people. According to Montgomery, if each of these 1.3 people is transferred to 1.3 other people, and it continues to happen 10 times, then in the tenth time, 14 people will get the flu. This is because 1.3 in 10 is approximately 13.786.
However, coronavirus is more contagious than common influenza. Experts are still trying to figure out R0, however, it is not something precisely defined, because diseases behave differently in different environments and some people are more infectious than others. But the WHO says most of the R0 estimates for coronavirus are about 2´-or-2.5, while some estimates point to a high of 3.11. Montgomery uses R0 of 3 to perform its calculations.
So everyone who passes three to him now doesn t look like that much difference, but if each of these three passed it to three and it happened in 10 layers, then I was responsible for wounding 59,000 people. This is because 3 to the power of ten is 59,049,´-or-slightly approaching.
For example, it is assumed that all people in all ten layers of transmission will be vulnerable to contracting the virus, while some may already have immunity to it. But its main point holds.
Conclusion If you are not responsible enough to think that you do not mind if you catch the flu, remember that it is not about you, it is about everyone.
Every day that you practice social divergence during an epidemic, you protect another person (maybe hundreds´-or-even thousands of other people). So if you can, stay at home. It is the easiest heroic act you will ever do.