2020 / 1 / 31
Historically one of the fundamental dialectic narratives in Islam religion is shiiasim governance, traditionally and over more 1450 years ago the Islamic world divided to two main sectrarianism attitude on bias of who has right to become after (Mohammed s prophet death) ? and how to be ? dose that by (Caliphate? )´-or-( Wilayat?)
However, this like any religions could be different ethincs but the most important to mention this related what is happen now in Middle East , Iraq , Iran and some of neighboring countries and how the historical traditional issue has impact to modern political regimes in Middle East communities , stereotypically Shia believed the governance looted since Mohammed s prophet death by depending on (Shura) principle which is most sunnis believed that the right way for prophet followers while Shia oppositely believed it is be by recommendation of Mohammed prophet to (Imam Ali bin Abi Talib).
In this Idea the conflect in Middle East got the significance over more fourty years last decades, even when the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 became in war with Saddam Hussein s regime the reasons were not clearly on that sectarianism conflict but later war became showen on that purpose.
Obviously, in the modern history Shia expearnced in both the Iranian regime through the Islamic revolution and in Iraq after 2003, that why its look like Iran gotten a gift when most Shia political parties took the power backing by coalition forces in Iraq invasion, but time by time the Shia politicians turn them back and they approaching to Iran.
Nevertheless, the question here become to rise is dose Shia looking for governance just to accomplish the historical missing power in Isalm´-or-they would like to build the modern state under Shiiasim governance?
Most Shia in Iraq are disappointed because their politicians do not succeed to govern the Iraq state´-or-to rebuild it again as they promised by new democracy, despite of it is irrational to practicing the democracy by Isalmic political agendas.
Dramatically, the events since last year in October in Iraq discovered important indication that over 17 years in the governance Shia political elite they fail to first, established they want to build a state secondly, which is more important they never have vision for future to found political infrastructure for new generation, that what psycho- politically justify the gap generation between millennials in Iraqi community and the political elite after 2003 even they are new Shia generation, and they aware for demanding real country which mean they miss the national identification.
The political trend in Shia community in Iraq classified for two types first , old fashion represented in all political elite who they came with invasion after 2003, they govern Iraq on the basic of historical stereotype as Shia should govern because historically they never got opportunity to revival (Wilayat governance), and the second trend the modern reforming mind represented by protesters they are Shia also but they found the governance should be create a state to provide new example of Shia leadership.
Instead of build a state, the regime after 2003 went so far to establish military wings and economic committees loyal to the political parties while they are already in the power that increase discontent of the protesters, dynamically the social interaction between Iraqi Shia as a protesters and political elite going on more complicated after killing Genral Soleimani who was the guider of the political process in all most Iraqi point views and it s important to determine other play factors could make impact on the future of Iraq:
First, the (Marjia) role: represtitative by Grand ayataullah Ali Al-Sistani, through the weekly pray ceremony speech, politically the speech over three months showed that Marjia try to handle with the interaction by incite the political elite for reforming and respond to the protesters demands while the protesters clearly showed they lost the confidence in political parties and all politicians who they took them opportunity in governance at the same time it s clearly through the ceremony speech that Marjia still want the demands implement by the same political elite, apprehension that the governance ( go to others ) without mentioning who they are !!, in this point we conclude there is unclear level of confidence just because the gap of generation also.
Secondly, absence of the political leaders in demonstrations, and the roadmap,political vision, unified standards of who can become prime minister temporarily even though the demands are presented over the time of protesting but still the phenomena entitled under psychological folk, not yet who they are could become representatives of protesters nor the roadmap showing what is after demands accomplishment, two main reasons give rise to that militia s activities and suspecting as proxies for U.S´-or-Israel indicating to betrayal.
Third, the military wings of political parties (Militia) as they are facing now challenges more than before especially after Soleimani s death, they manage in the onetime interior conflicts between them and the protesting waves, moreover the probabilities military clashs in between them because Soleimani s absence and other complicated competitions and other conflicts factors.
Day by day the Shia governance will be isolated from to be more interacting with international community because now the stigma in Siha s political lobbies is protesting aim to belonging to the U.S & Israel side which is would lead to more divisions and conflicts except if Marjia take the initiative to supporting the protesters more and reforming the political process newly .