2019 / 10 / 2
Syria s federal´-or-death drums
It is likely against the backof what leaked to the media earlier, the breakthroughs of power for most of the armed takfiri organizations, that Bashar al - Assad s regime was behind the fool edit Sham body, to be the only dominant force in the region, which is rejected by all international forces organization, even those that helped her former In public , And on top of the latter Turkey , which is associated with the Russian position and for months in public with the continuity of the logistics relationship in secret , Russia cannot accept the Turkish manipulation, and the expansion of the organization, it is at the top of its terrorist list with a preacher, and to appease Russia, put by Turkey before Russia to almost deferred benefits To be lost, including the solution itself, and did not lend power, Iran´-or-Russia any importance to this Turkish request rejected in advance by the body, but Turkey tried to cover the rejection, to buy time and continue in the absence of peace and no war, to the rear of : fear of the wave of migration Expected and the transfer of Takfiring to its territory . The second is the hope that Russia will accept its demand for a solution to the Kurdish issue in the east of the Euphrates. This led to a statement from Russia that its patience was being implemented at the recent Sochi Conference, after Turkey was unable to complete any item of items that meet them to resolve the problems assigned to it´-or-took charge in the former Sochi conference on September 17, 2018.
The process in which Turkey has lurched and almost completely failed, around the security zone, in which it demands to be dominant, has recently prompted the search for different axes and different solutions. It has moved the Muslim Brotherhood movement to issue a statement that is less than the betrayal of the homeland. That there is a safe area in northern Syria under the tutelage of Turkey, and before it appeared the most terrible statement of the editor of the Sham that it will support Turkey when attacking the eastern Euphrates, even if a clear trick to reassure Turkey, to fight and expelled to the movement of Noureddine Zanki of Idlib .
Almighty Turkey s ambition in this scheme is to achieve two tracks: first, to fulfill the promise with Russia to evacuate the Idlib area of the extremist groups, by transferring them to the Kurdish regions of Afrin and east of the Euphrates if I got the safe area, not only as a claim to return the displaced and the inhabitants of the camps to it, to change the Kurdish demographic , And Erdogan will have eliminated the Kurdish issue on the one hand, and on the other, rid of the armed opposition and listed on the Russian terrorism, and then will have rid of their hands of them, and leave them to the death toll of Syrian power and Russian aircraft .
However, according to the events, and until the moment, it turns out that the Turkish plan failed, and the American and European countries will not leave the East Euphrates, will not give up the Kurdish forces, and since the recent Sochi conference, that the diphtheria is bothering Turkey before the opposition protected so far, the lack of geographical presence to send them And that indicates that the compass that most of the bargains and deals between Turkey and Russia almost declare failure, and therefore remains in front of Turkey only :
1- Either openly abandon the opposition and be bombed by Russia as any murder dragged me in Aleppo and the eastern Ghouta, it does not rule out also involving Turkey, under two factors: First , they also classified the Sham Liberation Organization on the terrorism list , and thus allowed its own to fight it . Second, based on the statement by the foreign minister at the beginning of this year that it may share with Russia in the fight , especially after not complied with orders to give up heavy weapons and expelled organization Nur ad-Din from Idlib, and hit some of the other factions loyal to Turkey, and the results were disastrous for many Of States .
2-´-or-seek peaceful solutions other than that offered by Turkey to Russia and the Authority, and they have acquired their patience. Russia, at the conference, expressed its resentment of the situation there, that " Idlib became an emirate of al-Qaeda " I.e. in the sense that reality cannot be accepted, as said Foreign Minister Lavrov today, we urge our partners Turks to fulfill their obligations that have been the signature on September 17 , 2018 ,"stressing" the importance of preventing the strengthening of the terrorist presence under the guise of a ceasefire , which was agreed With Turkey "
Therefore, political solutions cannot be effective with the Sham Liberation Organization. They are in a style that encourages only the sovereignty´-or-the Jihad. Now it occupies an important region of Syria, which is managed as an independent state within a state and is not expected to abandon it without a bloody conflict. Turkey is likely to advance a project that moves from the principle of reducing the conflict to security at the level of federalism, perhaps under other names. In fact, such a proposal would be like a confederate state, because its Islamic government would impose its constitution and thus its Salafi cultural and sharia economic system. these will be rejected of the major powers for several considerations, and therefore the region, no matter how Turkey tried to buy time, sees no solution on the horizon except a military solution, and therefore the people of the Idlib waiting for bloody battles, and therefore Turkey will face disaster if not disasters in many ways, Which is not a national issue for the Kurdish people, and will do the impossible to mix the two situations together, that is to include them in one deal. As mentioned earlier, Turkey cannot play with the awareness of the big powers despite the common interests. And its diplomatic weight Yasi.
Therefore, dealing with Takfiri terrorism cannot be solved by the political dimension, and there is no alternative to military elimination. The issue of the Kurdish region, east of the Euphrates and Afrin, the Kurdish force that fought terrorism ISIS from the world, known to be solved easily accessible through a political deal, the problem is what to be submitted next Syrian power, concessions, but rather what you will agree upon by Russia and America, when their actual dialogue on the future of Syria begins, and here Turkey is trying to race with time and win the lost time, to achieve their goals with the incision of the Euphrates and the region , secure, asking what we have alternatives´-or-revive Anadolu agreement rejected Russia s diplomatic style, Iranian and authority of Syria -dir-ectly.
Nevertheless, the argument between the permanence of the semi-autonomous regions within Syria is the result of the federal solution as an ideal system for the coming Syria, and the writing of the constitution based on it.
D. Mahmoud Abbas
United States of America